Moscow Airports Grounded Daily by Drones

Domodedovo, Sheremetyevo, Zhukovsky, and Vnukovo airports in the Moscow area suspended flights on nearly every day in October. On the most severe days, Russian aviation authority Rosaviatsiya kept the grounds closed for as long as nine hours. The shutdowns stem from a defensive measure known as the carpet protocol, which halts all air traffic when unidentified objects appear in the sky.

The disruption follows a strategic shift declared by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in early September. He told airlines and insurers that Russian airspace would become completely unsafe. The next day, Ukraine sent a formal warning to the International Civil Aviation Organization. This campaign aligns with Ukraine's broader effort to restrict movement in the region, a conflict that has seen Ukrainian airspace closed since February 2022.

Oleksandr Laneckij, chief executive of Friendly Avia Support, noted that every drone poses a military threat under current Russian rules. He compared the situation to the Houthis in Yemen, who disrupted Saudi airspace, but argued that Ukraine's military capabilities are far greater. Jan Matvejev, a military analyst, said that triggering the protocol requires only simple drones without warheads. Ukraine's arms industry can produce hundreds of these combat-ready long-range drones daily.

Matvejev stated that Russian air defenses are not fully effective against these threats. He argued that if the drones could be easily shot down, Russia would have done so by now. Simon Shuster wrote in The Atlantic in October that Ukraine's efforts are just getting started. The analyst added that a drone weighing dozens of kilograms can cause serious harm through collision alone, even without explosives.

Both experts warned that the current protocol increases risks for civilian flights. Laneckij suggested Russia might lower the threshold for declaring the protocol, raising the danger of incidents similar to the 2024 Azerbaijan Airlines crash. Investigators found that a Russian air-defense missile, fired to counter drones, killed 38 people in that accident. Matvejev said little has changed in the air-defense protocol since that event.

The impact extends beyond Moscow. Ukrainian forces attacked Pskov airport in the summer of 2023, and drone debris fell on Sochi airport earlier this month. In September, Zelenskyy confirmed that Russia struck Kyiv's airport and Boryspil. Laneckij said foreign airlines will decide whether to keep flying based on military threats, demand, and insurance costs. If insurers raise premiums sharply, ticket prices could soar, further straining a market where competition has already shrunk.