Two-Thirds of Lebanese Shi'ites Back Handing Hezbollah Weapons to State, Poll Shows

A survey of Lebanese Shi'ites released in mid-October indicates that 66.4% of those polled believe Hezbollah's weapons should be transferred to the Lebanese state. This figure represents a significant stance from a demographic that has historically formed the backbone of the group's support base. The poll was conducted in September by Statistics Lebanon and surveyed 800 individuals from the community.

The findings extend beyond armaments to the fundamental question of state sovereignty. Data reported by Kataeb.org indicates that 71.1% of respondents believe that decisions regarding war and peace should rest exclusively with the Lebanese state. Furthermore, only a small minority, 5.9%, believe Hezbollah's leadership should have a larger role in determining the country's future trajectory.

Public trust in national institutions appears to be shifting toward official military structures rather than the armed group. Approximately 78.5% of participants expressed trust in the Lebanese Armed Forces, and 51.1% identified the army as the institution best suited to guarantee long-term security. In comparison, only 16.5% selected Hezbollah for that role. Despite these preferences regarding security and disarmament, 59.5% of respondents still maintained some level of trust in Hezbollah.

However, the results are not entirely critical of the group's past actions. Regarding the conflict with Israel, 67.4% of those surveyed stated that Hezbollah had either failed to meet its goals or achieved only partial success. Additionally, 42.1% expressed disappointment, anger, or concern regarding the group's leadership and the fallout from the conflict. Hezbollah has argued that its arsenal is necessary for defending Lebanon against Israel.

Significant discrepancies exist when comparing this data to other recent polling. An earlier survey conducted in May by Information International, cited in a June analysis by researchers Orna Mizrahi and Moran Levanoni, showed a vastly different sentiment, with 87.5% of Shi'ite respondents opposing disarming Hezbollah and only 7.9% supporting it. The gap between these conflicting datasets raises questions regarding how differences in wording or agenda may have influenced the results.

The stability of Hezbollah's influence remains a complex issue. Researchers Orna Mizrahi and Moran Levanoni have noted that Hezbollah's standing is rooted in its social and economic networks, political power, and the historical marginalization of Lebanon's Shi'ites. While Hezbollah has announced aid of up to $14,000 for eligible families in Beirut and its southern suburbs whose primary homes were destroyed, and up to $12,000 elsewhere, questions remain regarding whether the Lebanese state can provide security and reconstruction to replace the services Hezbollah currently offers.