7,000 dead as experts warn Iran war will worsen after U.S. vote

More than 7,000 people have died in Iran according to Western non-governmental organizations, a toll that analysts say will likely rise if a third round of war begins after the U.S. midterm elections on Nov. 3. Danny Citrinowicz, an Israeli analyst at the Institute for National Security Studies, described a renewed conflict as almost inevitable. He said the next phase could be more destructive than the two previous rounds of fighting.

Citrinowicz served as an intelligence official in the Israeli military for over 20 years. He warned that the United States and Israel face only bad and worse options in the Persian Gulf. He expects the next phase of the war to strike Gulf energy facilities, civilian infrastructure, and undersea internet cables in the Strait of Hormuz. He also said Iran might launch limited ground attacks on Kuwait and Bahrain, where U.S. bases are located, to hurt the American economy.

The United States and Israel have fought Iran in two separate wars over the last 18 months. The first conflict started in June 2025 with strikes on nuclear sites and ended after 12 days. Fighting resumed in February with Israeli attacks on senior Iranian leaders, including Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Since the summer ceasefire collapsed, both sides have held back from major strikes, but tensions remain high. The U.S. has blockaded Iranian ports while Iran targets commercial ships.

President Donald Trump accused Iran on Truth Social on Thursday of inflating oil prices before the midterms. He claimed Iran was making up fake hits and mines. A report from the Critical Threats Project and the Institute for the Study of War agreed that vessel attacks aim to pressure Washington. Iran seeks sanctions relief, reparations for strike damage, the release of frozen assets, and the right to keep enriched uranium. Mediators from Pakistan and Qatar have failed to restart talks in recent weeks.

Suzanne Maloney of the Brookings Institution noted that the war has pushed Iran’s leadership to double down on its revolutionary ideology. She warned that proxies like the Houthis in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon could retaliate by targeting airports. Karim Sadjadpour of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace said Trump lacks a clear goal and that no military knockout punch will force Iran to capitulate. He argued that diplomacy remains possible but has been narrowed by maximalist U.S. aims.

The human toll extends beyond Iran. Lebanese media report over 4,000 deaths in Lebanon. Twenty-one U.S. service members and more than 70 Israelis have been killed. Deaths have also been recorded in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Yemen. The Pentagon is drafting a new battle plan according to U.S. outlets, but it is unknown if Trump will approve it.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has spoken of finishing the job against the Iranian regime. He faces Israeli voters in a close race in the coming days. Citrinowicz said a widening crisis could help Netanyahu stay in power by enabling an emergency unity government. He warned that political calculation could combine with an Iranian development to produce an unnecessary attack. Sadjadpour said Iran would compromise only under existential economic pressure and a clear diplomatic exit.