Votel: Iran strikes lack clear exit

New U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran will likely weaken Tehran’s military capabilities but will not end the war, according to retired Army Gen. Joseph Votel. The former commander of U.S. Central Command spoke with NPR’s Leila Fadel about the potential goals of a post-election bombing campaign. Votel argued that military force alone cannot force a resolution without a clearly defined end state.

Votel led Central Command from 2016 to 2019 and now chairs the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point. He noted that many likely targets have already been hit in previous rounds. Iran has demonstrated it can rebuild these assets, meaning fresh attacks primarily buy time and punish Tehran rather than change its strategic calculus. He observed that the Iranian government has become more hard-line and willing to execute bold counterattacks.

For the conflict to conclude, Votel said Washington must define specific objectives. In his view, the two main goals should be resolving the nuclear enrichment issue and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Once these targets are set, the United States should coordinate military, economic, diplomatic, and information efforts. He emphasized that military power is only one component of national pressure.

The economic front is showing visible progress, according to Votel. A maritime blockade and various sanctions are squeezing Iran’s finances. He cited recent reporting that Iran’s ghost fleet has run out of oil. While this approach requires time, Votel noted there is definite movement in that direction. Reopening Hormuz would help lower gas and diesel prices for American consumers, addressing a key domestic concern.

Votel identified Iran’s nuclear program and its use of regional proxies as the principal U.S. worries. He mentioned the Houthis on the Arabian Peninsula as part of this proxy network. To bring Iran to the negotiating table, he stressed the need for clear objectives and the patience to execute a coordinated strategy. The U.S. must use all tools of national power simultaneously.

The U.S. military possesses substantial offensive power in the region, Votel said. The ability to strike is not in question. However, defensive capabilities face constraints. Heavy pressure on missile interceptors protects U.S. forces, regional partners, and critical infrastructure. Votel assessed that while offensive capability remains strong, missile defense is the area facing potential shortages during a prolonged campaign.