Maine and Kansas Senate races remain close as Democrats extend leads in Texas and Michigan

Senate control for the next two years hinges on four tightly contested races, according to a new CNN poll conducted between October 20 and October 27. The survey indicates that Democrats are currently leading in Texas, Michigan, and Kansas, while the race in Maine remains effectively tied. These outcomes will determine which party holds the upper chamber, a position currently poised to shift based on these specific state results.

In Maine, former state Senate President Troy Jackson holds a slight edge over incumbent Senator Susan Collins. Jackson received support from 49% of respondents, compared to 45% for Collins. The margin falls within the poll's margin of error, meaning the race has no clear frontrunner. At least 12.5% of voters indicated they could still change their minds. Collins, a Republican, is the only incumbent of her party running in a state that voted for Kamala Harris in 2024. She has distanced herself from the presidential party, with 46% of respondents saying she would choose constituents over the Republican Party.

In Michigan, former public health director Abdul El-Sayed has widened his lead over former Representative Mike Rogers. El-Sayed is favored by 49% of respondents, while Rogers holds 42%. This represents an increase from a September poll where El-Sayed held 47% and Rogers held 44%. El-Sayed has consolidated Democratic support, with 95% of likely Democratic voters saying they will support him, up from 90% in September. Rogers' favorability has dropped to 50%, down from 58% in September. Fifty-seven percent of Rogers' supporters said they are voting against El-Sayed rather than for Rogers.

Texas State Representative James Talarico maintains a narrow lead over Attorney General Ken Paxton. Talarico is favored by 49% of likely voters, while Paxton holds 43%. Talarico leads despite an extended absence from the campaign trail in early October. Sixty-four percent of likely voters of color support Talarico, including 22% of that group who voted for Donald Trump in 2024. Within their own parties, Talarico enjoys a favorability advantage, with only 2% of Democrats viewing him unfavorably, compared to 24% of Republicans who view Paxton unfavorably. Polls close in Texas in five days.

In Kansas, Democratic challenger Adam Hamilton leads incumbent Senator Roger Marshall. Hamilton is supported by 49% of likely voters, while Marshall holds 45%. Hamilton, a Christian pastor, is performing well despite low overall favorability for the Democratic Party in the state. Fifty-seven percent of voters view the Democratic Party unfavorably, but only 38% feel the same about Hamilton. Fifty-nine percent of Hamilton's backers said they are motivated by opposition to Marshall. Approximately 12% of Republican and Republican-leaning likely voters support Hamilton.

CNN conducted the polling via telephone, randomly sampling registered voters. The survey included 838 likely voters in Kansas, 783 in Maine, 768 in Michigan, and 923 in Texas. Margins of sampling error are plus or minus 4.5% in Kansas and Maine, 4.7% in Michigan, and 4.2% in Texas. Fox News Digital contacted all eight campaigns for further comment.