Polls show Democratic lead in redrawn Texas seat

Bobby Pulido leads the race for Texas's 15th congressional district by five to six points in recent polls. The seat was redrawn in 2025 to provide Republicans with an 18-point notional majority. The shift comes as the midterm elections approach on November 3.

Government data indicates Texas accounted for roughly one-third of all Immigration and Customs Enforcement arrests nationwide in July 2026. This share exceeds that of any other state. In the Rio Grande Valley, local business owners report labor shortages tied to the crackdown. Mario Guerrero, president of the South Texas Builders Association, stated his acquaintance’s crew of 35 daily workers has shrunk to four or six. Guerrero voted for Donald Trump in three previous cycles but plans to vote Democrat in November.

Father Roy Snipes, who has served the La Lomita Catholic Chapel for nearly 50 years, addressed the congregation on the role of ICE. He noted the chapel sits about 200 yards from the Rio Grande. Snipes resisted plans to seize the property for a border wall during Trump’s first term. He described the current enforcement actions as detaining and deporting neighbors without sufficient justification.

Javier Villalobos, the Republican mayor of McAllen, acknowledged the difficulty of the race. He credited the administration with securing the border but noted that public support erodes when law-abiding residents are deported. Recent surveys from late summer show a majority of Hispanic voters in Texas disapprove of the president and favor Democrats. This marks a departure from the 2024 cycle, when Trump captured approximately 55% of the Hispanic vote in the state.

Pulido, a Tejano singer and two-time Latin Grammy winner, has campaigned on local economic issues rather than national party branding. He emphasized the region’s distinct economic needs to voters at a local avocado festival. Residents there cited rising prices as a primary concern, attributing the cost of living increases to federal policy.

Republican strategist Mike Madrid noted that Latino voters frequently identify as independents. Tano Tijerina, the Republican candidate in the neighboring 28th district, described the current political environment as facing real headwinds. Student volunteer Alexis Uscanga characterized the midterm contest as primarily a turnout challenge for the GOP.

A swing toward Democrats in the 15th district could impact other races in Texas. A shift in this seat might put a US Senate position in play. Democrats have not won a Senate seat in Texas in more than 30 years.