Israelis Vote as 70,000 Gaza Dead and 19-Year Tenure Define Tight Race

Israeli voters head to the polls on Tuesday in a contest that centers on the political future of Benjamin Netanyahu rather than a traditional left-right split.

Netanyahu first took office 30 years ago and has held the prime ministership for 19 of those years. Current polling indicates that pro-Netanyahu and anti-Netanyahu camps are running neck and neck. The opposition bloc is led by Gadi Eisenkot, a former Israel Defense Forces chief of staff who entered politics four years ago. His party, Yashar, advocates for US-style term limits for the prime minister. Eisenkot campaigned this week in Modi'in, a town between Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, where supporters praised his direct style. Noa Sadeh, 56, a rally attendee, said she is tired of politicians who only know how to talk.

The opposition coalition includes former prime ministers Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Lieberman, both of whom previously served in Netanyahu’s government. On the far right, Yishai Fleisher of the Otzma Yehudit party argued in Bet Shemesh that Netanyahu drifts too far left. Fleisher proposed increasing West Bank settlements and creating a ministry to manage the voluntary departure of Palestinians.

Netanyahu has framed the election as a choice between the right and Palestine. His campaign posters pair opposition leaders with the heads of parties representing Palestinian citizens of Israel, who comprise about 20% of the population. A key issue in the final weeks is whether anti-Netanyahu Jewish parties will form a governing coalition with mainly Arab parties. Polls forecast that opposition Jewish parties will outpoll Netanyahu’s bloc but will lack a majority of the Knesset's 120 seats without Arab party support.

The race has been shaped by the war in Gaza, which began after the October 7, 2023 attacks. More than 70,000 Palestinians have died in the conflict. Israel states that one-third of those killed were Hamas combatants, but Hamas remains intact and Iran’s nuclear program persists. Netanyahu also faces ongoing corruption trials and the fallout from his attempt to reshape the supreme court.

Netanyahu’s base remains loyal despite reports that he ignored credible warnings before the October 7 attacks. His allies claim intelligence chiefs kept him uninformed, a claim observers describe as unfounded. Many analysts expect him to outmaneuver rivals in post-election coalition talks. Opposition hopes also depend on liberal expatriates returning to Israel to vote, a demographic that may influence a single-seat margin.

On Thursday, a state ceremony marked the 31st anniversary of Yitzhak Rabin’s assassination. Netanyahu attended via a low-ranking minister while opposition leaders participated directly. Yair Golan, leader of the Democrats party, expressed optimism about forming a coalition focused on long-term regional security. A video of young Israelis singing Rabin’s pre-assassination anthem at a Negev festival circulated widely this week.