Polls show 12 to 15 Knesset seats held by Palestinian blocs as both Israeli camps miss majority

In the town of Kfar Qasim, Palestinian citizens of Israel gathered at sunset for knafeh pastries and cardamom coffee to hear campaign pitches. This community constitutes approximately 20% of Israel's total population. Their voting behavior in next week's election could determine which party controls the 120-seat Knesset.

Current polling data indicates that Benjamin Netanyahu's far-right coalition will lose its current majority. The Jewish Israeli opposition bloc is also projected to fall short of the 61 seats required to form a government. Palestinian citizens are forecast to secure between 12 and 15 seats, divided between the Islamist Ra'am party and the Joint List. The Joint List is an alliance of three smaller parties, including Ta'al.

Ahmad Tibi, who leads Ta'al and has served in the Knesset for over two decades, stated that his party is determined to bring the current government down. He identified high turnout among the Arab community as a primary tool to achieve this objective. Tibi noted that the choice for voters is between the current leadership and the opposition bloc.

Most Jewish Israeli opposition parties have ruled out forming a coalition with Arab politicians. Netanyahu and his allies have campaigned to make such an alliance politically unpopular. Campaign posters have featured slogans such as "It's [either] the right or Palestine" and "Bibi or Tibi." However, Tibi is unlikely to receive even a junior ministerial post if the opposition wins.

Israel has only appointed two Palestinian ministers in its history. Raleb Majadele held the sport portfolio for two years, while Issawi Frej handled regional coordination for just over a year. In 2021, Ra'am leader Mansour Abbas joined a historic coalition with Naftali Bennett, who is now part of the opposition bloc. Netanyahu himself previously opened coalition talks with Abbas.

Mohammed, a prospective voter who manages staff at a hi-tech company, expects the opposition to change its position once the results are final. He described the coalition math as simple, noting that "everything is mathematics" and that "one plus one is two." He is urging friends of various backgrounds to cast their ballots.

Sami Abu Shehadeh, leader of the Balad party, said that fear is the central motive for many voters. He cited the destruction in Gaza, violence in the West Bank, and rising discrimination inside Israel as factors deepening worries about a return of far-right ministers. Abu Shehadeh said voters understand the danger if the current leaders "come back to rule again."

Trust in the system remains low for some Palestinian voters. Last month, Israel's supreme court effectively forced Abu Shehadeh out of the race over an article regarding the 7 October Hamas-led attacks. The ruling was widely criticized for applying different free speech standards to Jewish and Palestinian citizens. In contrast, a motion to disqualify national security minister Itamar Ben Gvir over racist language was not upheld.

Amjed Iraqi of the International Crisis Group stated that a returning far-right coalition would have a renewed mandate to speed up policies of ethnic cleansing and annexation. He described the vote as a measure of mitigation, noting that Palestinians can distinguish between a rightwing and a far-right government. The election takes place two days before Kfar Qasim marks the 1956 massacre, in which border police killed 49 people who had broken an unknown curfew.