US official estimates Orban could secure 10 Security Council votes

The search for the next United Nations Secretary-General involves a potential alliance between Washington, Moscow, and Beijing to back Viktor Orban. President Donald Trump has reportedly pushed for the former Hungarian prime minister to enter the race, citing a desire for a candidate who challenges the existing international order. American officials encouraged Orban to run, and he has shown interest but has not finalized his decision.

A US State Department official described Orban as the "dream candidate for MAGA conservatives" due to his opposition to large-scale immigration and liberal nongovernmental organizations. The official estimated that eight of the council's 15 members would "easily" support Orban and projected that he might reach as many as 10 votes. This assessment rests on the belief that when the US, Russia, and China agree on a Security Council outcome, they can generally secure it. The report noted that no public commitments from any country have been made yet.

The positions of the UK and France, both permanent members with veto power, remain a key variable. The report suggested they might not block a candidate supported by a council majority and the other three permanent members. Neither London nor Paris has taken an official stance. Orban's name emerged during discussions where US officials sought "someone like Orban," a preference shared by their Chinese and Russian counterparts. Orban was receptive but voiced reservations about his identity as a nationalist politician and was unwilling to announce a bid unless confident of winning.

If Orban runs, Trump and Vice President JD Vance are expected to back him. An announcement would reportedly wait until after the US midterm elections. Orban previously clashed with the European Union while building closer ties with China. Trump endorsed him in Hungary's April elections, and Vance campaigned on his behalf. Orban declined to comment on the report.

An official from another country noted that the current field consists mostly of international bureaucrats or quiet diplomats, whereas Orban brings the approach of a political leader used to wielding power. The US official agreed that Orban has the right ideological outlook and would not be intimidated by the UN establishment. The report also raised concerns that his appointment could turn the post into a defender of Russian President Vladimir Putin and other authoritarian leaders. His ties to Moscow and Beijing and his record in Hungary would likely face scrutiny.

Emirati diplomat Lana Nusseibeh is among the declared candidates, having entered the race last week. She is expected to answer questions on Tuesday, ahead of a Security Council straw poll on Wednesday. The informal vote is meant to gauge support as members work toward consensus on a nominee. It is unclear whether Orban's name will appear, and more candidates could still enter. Antonio Guterres's term ends on December 31.

For now, the push for Orban rests on discussions and assessments from sources cited in the report. There has been no official announcement of a candidacy and no public confirmation that the three powers would support him.