Lula Rally Aims to Shift Momentum Before Sunday's Brazil Runoff

Tens of thousands of supporters gathered on Copacabana Beach in Rio de Janeiro on Saturday to rally behind President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. The event marked the final public push before Sunday’s presidential runoff, where 159 million eligible Brazilians will cast ballots to determine the next head of state.

Lula enters the final vote as the underdog, having trailed in the first round held on October 4. Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, secured 47% of the vote that day compared to Lula’s 45%. Since the return of democracy in the 1980s, no candidate who lost the first round has subsequently won the runoff. A victory for Lula would therefore break a long-standing historical pattern.

The atmosphere on the 2.5-mile beach was festive and intense. Crowds dressed in red filled the sand in a procession described as carnival-like. Activists displayed a large yellow and green banner reading, “WE ARE GOING TO TURN THIS AROUND!” Josias Silva, a 61-year-old truck driver, held a homemade sign stating, “Lula re-elected. Tomorrow will be a new day.” He told onlookers that recent student-led protests indicated the public had woken up, predicting Lula would secure over 60% of the final vote despite polls suggesting a tighter race.

Analysts currently view Bolsonaro as the slight favorite. He has campaigned on a promise to tackle violent crime with strict measures, leveraging his father’s legacy. However, Lula has gained ground in recent weeks following scandals involving his opponent. Last week, the magazine Piauí reported that Flávio Bolsonaro attended a boat party with sex workers and vaccine lobbyists during the peak of the 2020 coronavirus outbreak, while seeking deals with his father’s government.

For many voters, the election carries personal weight. Jair Bolsonaro is serving a 27-year prison sentence for plotting a coup after losing the 2022 election to Lula. Some democrats fear he may be released or return to power if his son wins. Reports indicate that several of his allies, now jailed or in exile, could receive senior military and police appointments. Marta Moraes, a 59-year-old restaurateur, said her opposition was specifically to “Bolsonarismo.” She noted that she lost four relatives due to neglect during the pandemic.

Mobilization efforts have been digital as well as physical. Many attendees were part of “Lula’s Army,” a WhatsApp group of 10 million members created after the first round. Isabella Gaze, a 64-year-old retired teacher, stated, “This isn't a normal election.” DJ Cammy Marinho, 49, spent two weeks attempting to persuade Bolsonaro voters and abstainers to change their minds. Fourteen-year-old Heitor Lopes da Silva traveled from Duque de Caxias in a wheelchair to carry a placard of support.

Bolsonaro’s base also mobilized across the country. In Belo Horizonte, the capital of Minas Gerais, thousands gathered in Praça da Liberdade wearing yellow jerseys and waving Brazilian and US flags. Minas Gerais holds the second-largest electorate in the nation and serves as a key bellwether, as no candidate has won the presidency without carrying the state. Bolsonaro led there by just under 5% in the first round.

Supporters in Minas Gerais emphasized the security message. Antonio Carlos Costa Jr., a 59-year-old shooting club owner, argued that Jair Bolsonaro granted citizens the right to self-defense and his son would continue that policy. Security experts note that previous loosening of gun laws diverted firearms to criminal gangs, a trend Lula has reversed with stricter rules. Erika Cavalcante, a 43-year-old architect, carried a sign reading, “Don't let the mobsters win,” reflecting skepticism among Lula’s backers about Bolsonaro’s ability to curb crime given his ties to Rio’s paramilitary militias.