Lula Wins Fourth Brazilian Term, Reversing First-Round Deficit

Brazilian markets and political watchers focused on the runoff election that concluded shortly after midnight UK time on October 26, 2026. The result determined the future of economic policy and trade relations for the world's twelfth-largest economy.

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva secured 51.79% of the vote, defeating Flávio Bolsonaro, who received 48.21%. This victory represents a margin of approximately 4.3 million votes across Brazil's 159 million registered voters. Lula, the incumbent from the Workers' Party, described the outcome as a defeat for denialism.

The result marked a sharp reversal from the first round held earlier this month. In that initial vote, Flávio Bolsonaro led with 56.1 million votes against Lula's 53.8 million, a difference of 47.03% to 45.16%. No first-round runner-up in Brazilian history had previously won the second ballot. Polls tightened in the weeks between elections, leaving the race within fractions of a percentage point until the final count.

Several factors contributed to Lula's turnaround. The first round recorded a record abstention rate of 21%, a trend more common among lower-income voters who typically support Lula. The incumbent's campaign leveraged digital platforms, with millions joining a WhatsApp channel named Lula's army to distribute supportive content. Lula began posting on Instagram and TikTok, allowing his digital reach to surpass that of his rival for the first time.

The Bolsonaro campaign faced internal challenges, including scandals reported by the magazine Piauí regarding a 2020 boat party attended by Flávio Bolsonaro, sex workers, and vaccine lobbyists. A dozen watchdog groups alleged that Meta favored the Bolsonaro campaign, prompting Brazil's electoral court to order the company to avoid unequal treatment. Meta called these allegations false and unfounded.

International dynamics also influenced the race. President Donald Trump imposed 50% tariffs on Brazilian imports and criticized the trial of Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a 27-year sentence for plotting a coup. Lula positioned himself as a counterweight to Trump's colonial designs, pursuing a multilateral foreign policy that balances relations with the United States, China, and Russia.

Flávio Bolsonaro has refused to concede the election, citing the decision to extend voting hours by two hours. He stated that it is impossible to concede the result. Lula turns 81 on Tuesday, and his government will face a congress with a record number of rightwing politicians.